Nick Whalen

We're throwing all of the Aaron Rodgers narratives out the window and focusing on the game itself here. While the Packers have strung together a few underwhelming showings, they're still the superior team and should enter this game as healthy as they've been all season. My primary concern for Pittsburgh is the defense, which was carved up by Joe Flacco last week while allowing Chase Brown to rip off nearly 10.0 yards per carry. On the season, that Pittsburgh defense ranks 25th in EPA/play, 22nd in success rate, 20th in EPA per pass and 21st in EPA per rush.

I'm staying away from the side here, but I do see this as an under spot with Tampa Bay still dealing with a number of key injuries offensively. Meanwhile, the Saints have scored under 20 points in five of seven games and are coming off of a dreadful, four-turnover showing last week against Chicago.

The Falcons are coming off of an impressive win against Buffalo, in which they put up 335 yards of offense in the first half, but I'm not sure I'm ready to fully trust that unit away from home, even against a Niners defense without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Meanwhile, the Niners should get some pieces back this week, but they're still incredibly banged up and will face an improved Falcons defense that rates out as one of the five best units in the NFL against the pass. I'm staying away from the side, but I see this as a lower-scoring game than the total implies.

It's still strange to see the Browns sitting as a favorite, but this should be a good spot for the Cleveland defense to hold down the Dolphins, while Quinshon Judkins rolls over the worst run defense -- bar none -- in the NFL. The conditions in Cleveland will likely make this a low-scoring game and favor a Browns team that prefers to grind games out.

We know that laying a big number with the Chiefs traditionally has not worked out, but I love this spot for Kansas City at home against a Raiders team that's lost by double-digits to the Chargers, Commanders (with a backup QB) and Colts. The Raiders simply cannot run the ball, and putting this game on the arm of Geno Smith is a dubious proposition, to say the least. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offense continues to pick up steam, and the return of Rashee Rice will push that unit to an even higher level.

The Pats are riding high after two straight wins over Carolina and Buffalo, but they now play a second straight road game against what's been a surprisingly solid Saints defense. New Orleans ranks 14th in EPA/play and 12th in EPA/rush, so even while they're sitting at 1-4, I see this as a competitive team that's already been able to hang around against superior competition. Offensively, the Saints rank dead-last in the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards. Ultimately, I see this as a close, lower-scoring game.